Do 50% of individuals with a history of BCC will develop another one within 5 years of diagnosis regardless of the age of the individual?
skinio.com/education/basal-cell-carcinoma/ (mirror) says:
Patients diagnosed with BCC should be examined by their dermatologist at least twice a year. Remember, 50% of individuals with a history of BCC will develop another one within 5 years of diagnosis.
I wonder to what extent the age of the individual impacts this 50% statistics, since the older the individual, the more likely they are to have BCCs {1}.
Do 50% of individuals with a history of basal cell carcinoma (BCC) will develop another one within 5 years of diagnosis regardless of the age of the individual? If not, how does this number changes as their age of the individual changes? (e.g., 80% at age 70, 50% at age 60, 30% at age 50 etc.)
References:
{1} www.medscape.com/answers/276624-100129/how-does-the-incidence-of-basal-cell-carcinoma-bcc-vary-by-age#:~:text=The%20likelihood%20of%20developing%20BCC,mean%20age%20is%2064%20years.
The likelihood of developing BCC increases with age. Data indicate that BCC incidence is far higher (more than 100-fold) in persons aged 55-70 years than in those aged 20 years and younger. Patients 50-80 years of age are affected most often. The median age at diagnosis is 67 years and the mean age is 64 years.
Nevertheless, BCC can develop in teenagers and now appears frequently in fair-skinned patients aged 30-50 years. Approximately 5% to 15% of cases of BCC occur in patients aged 20- 40 years. Aggressive-growth types of BCC are more frequently noted in patients younger than 35 years than in older individuals.
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The 2010 study {1} reviewed a few existing studies and seems to lean toward age as not having an impact on the recurrence rate (however, note that 1 of the reviewed studies does indicate youth+female as a risk factor of recurrence after Mohs surgery):
(NMSC = non-melanoma skin cancer, e.g. basal cell carcinoma (BCC))
Young Age Is Not a Clinical Risk Factor
Although young age (typically < 40 years) is generally
viewed as a clinical risk factor for aggressive NMSC behavior, after much deliberation the panel
decided it is not. The published biomedical literature
does not strongly support “young age,” per se, as a
risk factor. Leffell et al.{46} documented an increased
percentage of basal cell cancer with aggressive histologic
growth patterns in young persons, but this
histologic feature is already a separate risk factor in
the algorithm
When the features of 54 basal cell cancers in
young patients referred for Mohs surgery were compared
with similar tumors in older patients,{47} tumor
location, histology, and clinical morphology did not
differ appreciably between the groups. In fact, initial
lesion and final defect sizes were statistically smaller
in the younger group. In a study from the United
Kingdom in which 39 young patients with basal cell
cancer were followed up for a minimum of 5 years,{48}
4 tumors were incompletely excised, 2 recurred, and
1 metastasized. Another study observed a higher
number of recurrent tumors in younger women referred
for Mohs surgery than in other demographic
groups.{49} Finally, 2 more recent studies found no difference
in either recurrence rates or presence of aggressive
histologic subtypes in younger versus older
patients with basal cell skin cancer.{50,51}
The panel decided that, taken together, these
studies do not support the suggestion that young age
alone is a high-risk factor for NMSC behavior. Any
tumor showing an aggressive histologic growth pattern,
regardless of patient age, becomes a high-risk
tumor.
References:
{1} Miller SJ, Alam M, Andersen J, et al. Basal cell and squamous cell skin cancers. J Natl Compr Canc Netw 2010; 8:836. jnccn.org/view/journals/jnccn/8/8/article-p836.xml; DOI: doi.org/10.6004/jnccn.2010.0062 {46} Leffell DJ, Headington JT, Wong DS, Swanson NA. Aggressivegrowth
basal cell carcinoma in young adults. Arch Dermatol
1991;127:1663–1667.
{47} Dinehart SM, Dodge R, Stanley WE, et al. Basal cell carcinoma
treated with Mohs surgery. A comparison of 54 younger patients
with 1050 older patients. J Dermatol Surg Oncol 1992;18:560–566.
{48} Cox NH. Basal cell carcinoma in young adults. Br J Dermatol
1992;127:26–29.
{49} Robins P, Albom MJ. Recurrent basal cell carcinomas in young
women. J Dermatol Surg 1975;1:49–51.
{50} Milroy CJ, Horlock N, Wilson GD, Sanders R. Aggressive basal
cell carcinoma in young patients: fact or fiction? Br J Plast Surg
2000;53:393–396.
{51} Roudier-Pujol C, Auperin A, Nguyen T, et al. Basal cell carcinoma
in young adults: not more aggressive than in older patients.
Dermatology 1999;199:119–123.
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