What is Mortality displacement?
I just read a German article comparing influenza with COVID-19. There is a table with Mortality displacement (rates? cases?) and laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza.
I'm super confused by this table. I think I know what laborartory-confirmed death cases are:
A person dies and the symptoms indicated influenza
A sample (e.g. spit) is taken
The virus can be proven to be there
Other reasons for the death can be ruled out
I thought that Mortality displacement would be an estimation of the unknown cases: For many dead people there is not laboratory test.
But the two things that don't quite fit:
The Mortality displacement is sometimes 0.
The Mortality displacement is sometimes lower than the laboratory-confirmed cases, e.g. 2009/10.
The Mortality displacement is sometimes vastly higher than the laboratory confirmed cases: 2008/09 the Mortality displacement was 18,800 and the laboratory-confirmed cases were 10.
Can somebody explain mortality displacement in a simple way?
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It's the number of deaths an event has caused to be shifted in time. So?there's a very high rate of deaths right now from covid-19 in Italy amongst the older population. Those deaths are occurring now instead of in the future so those deaths are displaced from the future to now. As a result the number of deaths in the older population after the pandemic finishes will be less since they were displaced to a different time.
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