What should I invest in to hedge against a serious crash or calamity?
There are a number of risks to the world and its economy out there over the next several decades, e.g.
Peak oil
Global warming
Instability (e.g. a major war or uptick in terrorism)
An "unknown unknown"
From the point of view of my investments, what should I focus on to maximise my chances of coming out these events in a good financial position?
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Are you willing to risk the possibility of investing to prepare for these things and losing money or simply getting meager returns if those crises don't happen?
Just invest in a well diversified portfolio both geographically and across multiple sectors and you should be fine.
Different risks require different hedges. You won't find a single hedge that will protect you against any risk. The best way to think about this is who would benefit if those events occurred? Those are the people you want to invest in. So if a war broke out, who would benefit? Defense contractors. Security companies. You get the idea.
You also need to think about if you really need to hedge against those things now or not. For example, I wouldn't bother to hedge against global warming or peak oil. It's not like one morning you're going to wake up, turn on CNNfn and see that the stock market is down 500 points because global warming or peak oil just hit. These are things that happen gradually and you can react to them gradually as they happen.
If peak oil is a concern, hedge against the effects of high oil prices. Reduce your dependence on the gas pump by moving closer to the places you normally drive, or adjust your lifestyle so that you need less. Buy things now that depend on fossil fuels (there's a long list).
If instability is a concern, invest in a place where the chance of instability is less.
If a freak event is a concern, think through what the consequences would be, and hedge accordingly.
Etc. Etc.
If you're referring to investment hedging, then you should diversify into things that would profit if expected event hit. For example alternative energy sources would benefit greatly from increased evidence of global warming, or the onset of peak oil.
Preparing for calamities that would render the stock market inaccessible, the answer is quite different. Simply own more of things that people would want than you need. A list of possibilities would include:
Non perishable food (canned, dried, or otherwise)
Weapons and ammunition
Medical supplies
Hand tools
Precious metals are also a way to secure value outside the financial markets, but would not be readily sellable until the immediate calamity had passed.
All this should be balanced on an honest evaluation of the risks, including the risk of nothing happening. I've heard of people not saving for retirement because they don't expect the financial markets to be available then, but that's not a risk I'm willing to take.
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