What is the long-term COVID-19 outlook?
Finding a cure for the common cold has long been an unattainable holy grail of medicine.
The common cold is caused by over 200 different strains of viruses (Common cold - Wikipedia).
The viruses mutate frequently (#Prevention).
Coronaviruses are one cause of the common cold (#Viruses).
The above facts imply that:
Finding a vaccination for SARS-Cov-2 (causes COVID-19 disease) is very unlikely.
Even if there were a vaccination for it, mutations would render it relatively ineffective.
Acquired immunity will similarly be of little help.
COVID-19 (or something like it) will eventually become as prevalent as the common cold.
Once this transition period is over, is there any reason to believe that COVID-19 won't have become a common and recurrent disease (similar to the common cold) that will simply be an inevitable danger, especially for the elderly and immune compromised?
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It's premature to say that there will be no vaccine. The Moderna RNA vaccine entered phase 2 studies a few days ago, and phase 3 is scheduled to start with 30,0000 users in 20 centers in the first week of July, 2020.
Other vaccines are going into trials shortly after this.
Perhaps the main concern is the durability of the immune response so it may mean that one needs to be re-vaccinated after a year of whatever period one's immune response lasts.
The companies are going to start making vaccine for use during the phase 3 trial hoping that the vaccine works and before the results come in which is expected towards October 2020.
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