Efficiency of age-dependent and geographical quarantines?
Most western countries let young people transmit the virus slowly over a period of 1-2 years while keeping the economy in lockdown and letting the old and frail people shop and work together. That method is likely to produce huge death rates (100-200,000 in the US). There is another method of quarantine:
Place all susceptible people in country accomodation with biohazard security level 2 (50+ and young asthmatics, diabetics, etc)
Let the young of strong constitution continue shopping, consuming, working, mixing together
America would be looking at 0.0002 x 360,000,000 x 0.7 deaths (about 50 thousand down from current estimate of 100-200 thousand with current quarantine rules)... once 70% of the population is immune, the pandemic is resolved.
It's a medically advanced way of protecting old and frail people while continuing the economy. Surely it would be better than a year of social distancing, with continual fresh outbreaks for 2-3 years?
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This form of approach, called mitigation, was modelled and led to disease cases exceeding surge capacity of the health system by eight fold, and deaths of about 1.2M.
That is why they changed to disease suppression.
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics
Imperial College London.
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