: Is there a model that explains why Italy is the second most affected country by COVID-19? I'm wondering if there's a model which explains why Italy is currently, judging by the data, the second most affected country by COVID-19.

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Is there a model that explains why Italy is the second most affected country by COVID-19?
I'm wondering if there's a model which explains why Italy is currently, judging by the data, the second most affected country by COVID-19. I'm not only talking about deaths but also infections.

It seems somewhat strange to me, considering that no other countries I'm aware of implemented any measure against the virus in the early days after the news was made public in China, also considering the virus may as well been circulating for some time already.
It also seems unlikely that Italy is more connected to China than other countries are.

One simple explanation I cannot entirely buy tho, is that other countries are not testing as thoroughly and therefore they are underestimating the risk.

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